在下一个5年里，中国将取代美国和德国成为世界上最大的出口国。到时，与现在6%的水平相比，中国的商品和服务将高达全球贸易的10%，据经济合作与发展组织的资料（OECD）。
      在其第一份的中国《经济调研报告》中，经合组织说当前的经济发展速度--在过去的二十年当中年均高达9%--并没有放缓的迹象。尽管经济活力已经帮助减少了中国绝对贫困人口的数量，收入仍然很低而且不平衡在加剧，这不仅是在城市与农村之间--农村的平均收入只有城市的三分之一那么多--同样是在更加繁荣的沿海省份里面。
      为了降低收入差距，政府应该采取措施让人们从农村转移到城市更加容易，但是城市化应当谨慎的管理，这份调查说。移民的法律限制需要减少，土地法需要改革。不同级别政府的资助方式需要调整以满足上升的城市人口的医疗和教育需求，因为地方政府往往不能增加它的收入。此外，反污染法需要更为有效的执行。
      作为政府政策的深刻转变的结果，私营经济现在推动着中国经济令人瞩目的增长，有远远超过一半的中国的GDP是由私人控制的企业生产的，但是需要采取更多的措施来提高商业环境，这份调查说。例如，开一个公司所需的资金仍然相当的高，这个方面首要的事情是修改公司法，通过新的破产规则，为财产权提供更强有力的保护。
      中国的市场经济还需要进一步改革金融系统，它仍然为银行，事实上为所有政府控制的银行所支配。政府近来消除银行积累的坏帐所作改革付出的代价将是相当的大，但应该是可以管理的，这份报告说，尤其是经济的增长已经让这种债务从1999年GDP的50%降低到现在的30%。但是这份报告警告没有私营业进一步的影响，银行系统未来的健全发展仍然不明了。
      这份报告指出提高资本分配的水平将是可持续发展的关键，公司需要能够更容易进入证券与债务市场以筹集资金。让政府所有的股票完全的可交易化能够提高上市公司的管理水平，而公司的债务市场，现在所占GDP不到1%，将会从政府的放松管制中受益。
      这份报告认为，中国货币更加灵活的汇率将减少价格的波动并可以提供更加稳定的宏观经济环境。2005年七月的决定，即将人民币升值以及将汇率制度从与美元挂钩转向由一篮子货币设置的有限波动的中间汇率，这是朝向正确方向所迈出的一步。
      中国的公共财务状况不错，2004年预算赤字低于GDP的1%，而公共债务稳定在23%左右，但是在医疗和教育上的公共花费很低，需要增加。养老金制度同样需要进一步的改革，因为下一个20年中国将会出现老龄人口比例的迅速增长，提高退休年龄，扩大养老金制度的覆盖范围以及让养老金权利在全国可转移化都是在调查的建议范围之列。
     

   By Finfacts Team
   Sep 16, 2005, 09:49
   www.finfacts.com
   China could overtake the US and Germany to become the largest exporter in the world in the next five years. By then, Chinese goods and services could represent as much as 10% of global trade compared with 6% at present, according to the OECD.
   In its first Economic Survey of China, the OECD says the current pace of economic growth - averaging more than 9% annually over the past two decades - shows no sign of slowing. But although economic dynamism has helped reduce the number of Chinese living in absolute poverty, income levels are still low and inequality is on the rise, not only between the cities and rural regions - average incomes in the countryside are only one third of those in the cities - but also within the more prosperous coastal provinces.
    To reduce the gap in incomes, the government should make it easier for people to move from the country to the cities, but urbanisation should be carefully managed, the survey says. Legal restrictions to migration will need to be reduced and  land law reformed. The funding of different levels of government will also have to be adapted to meet the health and education needs of a growing urban population as local authorities’ responsibilities are not always matched by their ability to raise revenues. In addition, anti-pollution laws will need to be enforced more effectively.
    As a result of profound shifts in government policies, the private sector is now driving China’s remarkable economic growth. Well over half of China’s GDP is produced by privately-controlled enterprises. But more needs to be done to improve the business environment, the survey says. For instance, the amount of capital required to start a company is relatively high. Priorities in this area should be to revise company law, pass a new bankruptcy code and provide stronger protection for property rights.
   China’s market economy also requires further reform of a financial system still dominated by banks, virtually all of which are government-controlled. The cost to the government budget of recent reforms to remove the burden of bad loans accumulated by the banks will be high but should be manageable, says the survey, especially as economic growth has reduced this debt to under 30% of GDP from nearly 50% in 1999. But the survey warns that without greater private sector control the future health of the banking system remains uncertain.
   The survey points out that improving the allocation of capital is a key to sustained growth. Companies need to have easier access to stock and bond markets in order to raise funds. Making government-owned shares completely tradeable would improve the governance of listed companies, while the corporate bond market, presently representing less than 1% of GDP, would also benefit from less government control.
   The report argues that a more flexible exchange rate for the Chinese currency would reduce price volatility and provide a more stable macroeconomic environment. The July 2005 decision to revalue the Renminbi and move the exchange rate system away from a US dollar peg toward one where limited fluctuations are allowed around a central rate set by a basket of currencies, was a step in the right direction.
   China’s public finances are in good shape, with a budget deficit below 1% of GDP in 2004 and public debt stable at around 23%. But public spending on health and education is low and should be increased. The pension system also requires further reform as the next two decades will see a rapid increase in the proportion of elderly people in China. Among the survey’s recommendations are raising the retirement age, extending coverage of the system and making pension rights transferable across the country.
   The OECD assessment and recommendations on the main economic challenges faced by China are available by clicking on each chapter heading below. Chapter 1 identifies the challenges for which the subsequent chapters provide in-depth analysis and policy recommendations.
   Chapter 1.  Key challenges for the Chinese economy .
    China’s economy has grown rapidly so far this decade. Government policies have moved markedly towards allowing market forces influence economic activity. Polices covering the price determination, foreign trade, exchange rates, foreign investment, entry barriers, internal markets, the operation of state-owned enterprise and the financial system have all been changed. These reforms have boosted growth that stems, in an accounting sense, mainly from a rapid pace of capital accumulation, relying on a level of national saving that is approaching half of GDP. The policy changes have allowed a much increased role for the private sector and substantial foreign investment. Sustaining the recent pace of growth will require further reform to ensure that there is a continued improvement in the framework for the private sector, to complete the reform of the banking sector and ensure a stable macroeconomic environment. There are also a number of imbalances in the economy whose resolution would help improve growth and wellbeing. In particular, policy changes are needed to reduce the disparities between rural and urban incomes and increase the pace of urbanisation. Welfare would also be improved by further reductions in the high level of pollution.
     Chapter 2.  Improving the productivity of the business sector

     This chapter appraises the performance of China’s businesses, relying on new empirical analysis of an up-to-date panel dataset of almost a million observations of firms. China’s privately controlled companies operate in very competitive product markets and are highly productive, creating most new jobs. However, their growth is still limited by various regulatory weaknesses that have yet to be fully addressed, even though considerable improvements in the regulatory framework have been made over the past few years. Key priorities include revising the company law, passing the new bankruptcy code, and proving greater regulatory support for protecting property rights. The state sector remains large and generally wasteful of resources; programmes that have transferred control of enterprises to outsiders and facilitated restructuring need to be expanded. If restructuring is combined with reforms in the factor markets for labour and land, growth will be made more sustainable and potential output growth raised.
      Chapter 3.  Reforming the financial system to support the market economy
      This chapter considers the changes that are needed to the financial system in China before it can adequately serve the growing private sector of the economy and provide diversified saving vehicles for individuals. Much progress has been made toward developing market oriented financial institutions and improving their internal capabilities to assess and manage risks and the stock and government bond markets have been developing rapidly. The basic institutions for an effective regulatory system have been put in place, and regulatory authorities are making good use of international standards and practices in their policies. Going forward, financial reform involves five main and related challenges. The first is to deal with the legacy of the banking system: a very high stock of non-performing loans and low capitalisation. The second is to reform the structure of the banking system so that it can better support the real economy. The third is to further develop the capital markets and foster the growth of institutional investors. The fourth, and ultimately the most important, is to strengthen the ability of financial institutions to behave commercially and manage risks prudently, while the fifth is to continue improving the supervisory structure so that systemic risks are contained. These issues are all the more daunting given that the business environment is still evolving away from a state administered towards a market economy.
     Chapter 4.  Reforming public finances to better serve growth Fiscal policy

    China has followed an extremely prudent path, keeping the level of government debt low and stable but following counter-cyclical polices when needed. Public expenditure relative to GDP is lower than in the OECD area largely owing to much less developed social transfer spending. Public spending may need some restructuring away from capital expenditure towards education and health spending. Social transfer spending also needs reform, which should build on the existing system of individual retirement accounts. Taxation has been kept low and has taken, on the whole, a pro-growth stance. But domestic corporate tax rates need to be lowered significantly as do the higher marginal tax rates on earned income. At the same time the base of the value-added tax needs to be widened partially making up for revenue losses elsewhere. Expenditure is to a greater extent decentralised than revenue, making a large part of sub-national governments dependent on transfers. There is scope to reform the inter-governmental fiscal system including bringing expenditure responsibilities at each level of government in line with financial resources and improving accountability. Finally, the budgetary system in China needs to be made more comprehensive and transparent.